By Eduard Zaloshnja
Already before the 2009 elections, I conducted several polls for new parties, where it turned out that there is a lot of electoral support for them a few months before the elections. But a chronic disease of theirs has regularly been the evaporation of support in the last month of the campaign, when the old parties start their electoral engines on the ground, and when the mainstream media mainly cover the activities of the old parties.
But will the same thing happen again in the parliamentary elections of spring 2025? Probably not, because this time we will have an innovation – about 1.7 million voters abroad will have the opportunity to send their vote by mail. And so, in the 2025 elections, the fate of the new parties may also change…
From a survey I conducted in June, it turned out that about 11% of that part of the electorate here, which has made up its mind to vote a year before the elections, was ready to vote for the new parties. And this high back support here is explained by the fact that the new parties are very active on the Internet and social networks (as their predecessors have been over the years). When ordinary citizens are polled many months before the elections, they are influenced by the criticisms that the new parties make against the tried and tested old parties, and therefore, they say that they will try to vote for the new parties.
But when the last month before the 2025 elections comes around, a good number of these new party supporters here may be influenced by the old parties’ grassroots and media campaigns, and therefore may go to the istikams. theirs (as they did in the previous elections).
It could be different with the emigrating supporters of the new parties. They will continue to be influenced by the new parties’ online and social media campaigns. The more active and critical they are towards the old parties, the greater is the probability that they will retain the support of their emigration voters until the end.
How much is the current electoral support in emigration for the new parties has not yet been measured. But maybe soon the polls will start to check it.
