The depletion of the majority during 12 years of power due to corruption scandals and the failure of the opposition to reform have created the conditions for a number of small parties to have at least some hope of parliamentary mandates on May 11, putting the historical SP-PD duopoly on power into question for the first time.
It is a secret that everyone knows that the two major parties, the Socialist Party on the left and the Democratic Party on the right, have combined their votes to place a number of obstacles for small parties or new political alternatives, which in turn has also led to the strengthening of the role of the party leader and the devaluation of parliament as a controlling institution over the executive.
The story began in 2008 with the Rama-Berisha agreement, which created the closed regional list system, a system that was used in the 2009, 2013 and 2017 elections, with a slight variation in the 2021 elections. With a new variation, the same system will be used in the May 11 elections, where the two parties to the 2008 agreement remain the same.
Edi Rama, leader of the Socialist Party, is seeking a fourth term as prime minister in these elections, and before serving as prime minister, he held the post of mayor of Tirana for eleven more years. Opposing him is Sali Berisha, who served as the country’s powerful president for five years in the 1990s and as prime minister for eight years.
Rama’s stated objective is not only to win the elections, but to win three-fifths of the parliament. Neither he nor other socialist politicians who have articulated the objective of three-fifths, a parliamentary majority that allows for unconsulted changes to the Electoral Code, the Penal Code or the Civil Code or many of the laws that laid the foundations of the Justice Reform, have explained why they think they need such a majority, nor have they explained for what purposes they will use such a majority, if they win it.
On the other hand, Sali Berisha and Ilir Meta, both with long histories of power and open criminal investigations into corruption scandals, also seek power. In a message from prison, Meta declared that the aim of his alliance with Berisha is to win three-fifths of parliament.
While Rama has not yet stated what he needs the three-fifths for, for Berisha and Meta, this objective, no matter how feasible it is, also aims to destroy the Special Structure Against Organized Crime and Corruption with the claim that it is persecuting both Berisha and Meta for political purposes.
A Close Result
If history has anything to say about the race between these parties, it is this: the result will likely be close. The result produced by the regional proportional system, which Rama and Berisha conceived as one that eliminates small parties by creating unfair barriers, has always been close. In 2009, the DP won 70 mandates, the SP 66, while the Socialist Movement for Integration, the main target of the Rama-Berisha agreement, managed to survive by winning four mandates. The 2009-2013 majority was created when Meta’s LSI crossed the political rainbow and entered into an alliance with Berisha. At the end of that mandate, when Meta and Rama reconciled, Berisha bought some deputies from the Socialists and continued the majority until the end.
In the 2013 elections, the PS again won 65 seats, the LSI, this time in alliance with it, won 16 seats and 2 more seats were won by two small parties. The DP and its allies won 57 seats.
In 2017, Rama managed to win 74 seats, the DP fell to 43 and the LSI rose to 19.
In 2021, the SP won 74 seats again, but three of these seats were seats lost by the LSI because it ran on its own.
In short, the result goes in favor of one side only if powerful electoral machines, some of which were previously sanctioned by the Biden Administration, such as the former PDIU structures in Elbasan and Tirana that now serve Rama, support one side.
The most expected result is also close because, in some districts where the number of seats falls even, such as in Elbasan or Durrës, Fier, Korçë and Vlorë, the formula for dividing seats known as the D-Hondt formula, favors a tie despite one side receiving more votes.
Chance for new parties
If you consider how much the ruling party has been politically consumed by countless corruption scandals and the opposition party, due to the lack of internal reform, it has understandably created more chances for new parties or political alternatives outside the two big blocs.
For starters, most of the new parties have spoken out forcefully and have even organized demonstrations in support of the most popular thing that has happened in Albania over the last decade, a structure of prosecutors and judges who are confronting the power on the left and on the right to end the impunity of widespread and systemic corruption.
The same body of prosecutors has also announced that it will pay particularly high attention to identifying cases of electoral crimes, which, in the past, have been perceived as largely determining the winners, crimes that have remained unpunished to this day. Whether or not prosecutors will be successful in the fight against electoral crime remains to be seen. But what is worth noting is that, in such a situation, new parties will have more chances of success than in the past.
Some of these parties are actually not so new anymore, and participation in past elections and the experience gained suggest that winning parliamentary seats is not impossible. And if we look at the narrow result that the application of the D-Hondt formula produces, in the political geography of Albania, a few seats won by these small parties could turn each of them into a kingmaker, a determining force for the governance of the country, as the LSI was in the period 2009-2017.
There are currently 11 parties in the electoral race, of which, in addition to the two major ones, six can be considered as contenders to enter the next parliament. One, the Social Democratic Party of Biden administration-sanctioned politician Tom Doshi, is already in parliament and is considered to be in an undeclared alliance with Edi Rama. Of the other five, three are groups split from the Democratic Party and two are political forces that, if successful, will enter parliament for the first time.
The results of the 2021 parliamentary elections or the 2023 local government elections carry valuable information to measure their chances for parliament.
Initially, the vast majority of these parties’ chances of entering parliament seem to lie in the territory of the Tirana District. In fact, if invalid votes and votes of small parties are taken as an indirect indicator of the so-called “protest vote”, there are such votes in all districts and enough to produce parliamentary mandates. In total, in the 2021 elections, 127 thousand such votes or 7% of the total were cast in the ballot boxes. In relation to the total number of votes, such votes were cast more in Lezhë, Elbasan and Shkodër, but in each of these districts, small parties compete separately for these votes, which, only if all are won by one of them, can produce a deputy.
In Tirana, the situation is different because the population is larger. In the 2021 elections, 34 thousand votes were cast here as protest votes, invalid votes or votes for small parties. If they had been won by a single party, these votes could have produced two to three mandates.
Consequently, small parties have a better chance of winning mandates in Tirana. This is not guaranteed, however, because if all five parties win, say, ten thousand votes each, their 50 thousand votes won together produce zero parliamentary mandates. This is the most pessimistic scenario for them. In an optimistic scenario, if they each receive between 12 thousand and 17 thousand votes, then they all receive one mandate and together become likely to determine the future governing majority. The small party contenders are ranked according to the lot that was drawn by the CEC for their position on the ballot.
Lëvizja Bashkë – Founded as a party about two years ago and having previously participated in the local government elections in Tirana, this left-wing party is competing in Tirana with Redi Muçi in first place and Arlind Qori, the mayor, in second place. It holds the number 2 position on the ballot and is located immediately after the Democratic Party and the Alliance for a Greater Albania, which are located in the first left column of the ballot.
Arlind Qori ran for the position of mayor of Tirana in the 2023 elections and received 13 thousand votes. His list of candidates for councilors won 7500 votes and received one mandate. The advantage of this party is the fact that local government elections are at the municipal level and Tirana Municipality is one of many municipalities in the region. In addition to the 300 thousand votes of the Municipality of Tirana, there are another 200 thousand in the municipalities of Kamëz, Vorë, Kavajë and Rrogozhinë from which Bashke can receive votes. Consequently, the victory of a mandate by this party is theoretically feasible, except for the fact that votes in local government elections are considered easier to win than votes in parliamentary elections. The Bashke Movement has declared that it will not enter into a coalition with any of the major parties and that it will be in opposition in the next parliament, regardless of the outcome of the elections.
Euroatlantic Coalition Party – With the number 4 on the ballot paper is one of the groups of politicians who were previously in the Democratic Party and who have today founded this new party, declared as a right-wing party and with liberal economic policies. Lulzim Basha is a reference figure of this party. His name is found on the open lists of Tirana. The leader is Endri Hasa, a current MP, while its first candidate in Tirana is Bujar Arapi. It is not clear whether this group will be able to field MPs or not.
Nisma Thurrje and Albania Becomes – Nisma Thurrje is a political party founded in 2021 and in the elections of that year secured 10 thousand votes at the national level. In the 2023 elections, the party led by Endrit Shabani received nearly 11 thousand votes at the national level in the municipal council competitions, winning 5 mandates. It declares itself as a centrist party. Albania Becomes and Adriatik Lapaj is a new party, which is competing in the elections for the first time. This party is in alliance with Nisma Thurrje. Albania Becomes declares itself as a democratic party that fights, alongside Nisma Thurrje, for a fair electoral system, with open candidate lists, as well as for direct democracy exercised by citizens through referendums, a democratic instrument that the two major parties, the DP and the SP, have consistently denied to citizens. The coalition candidates have declared that they will burn the possible mandates won from the closed lists to allow the candidates from the open lists who will win more votes to enter parliament. The votes of the Thurrje Initiative in the past elections in the Tirana District were about 5 thousand, a result that will have to increase by almost 3 times to have a secure mandate.
Right Develops – Politician Dashamir Shehi and another group split from the Democratic Party led by Enkelejd Alibeaj, have founded this coalition in which Alibeaj is running in first place on the open list of the Tirana District, while Shehi is running in last place. This party has also declared that the candidates from the closed lists have volunteers who will withdraw if they win mandates to make way for the most successful candidate from the open lists. Shehi’s National Development Movement was originally founded in 2005, and Shehi himself has entered and exited alliances with the Democratic Party several times. In the last local government elections, this party received 23,000 votes nationally and 18 councilor mandates. These are certainly easier votes to win than the votes required in parliamentary elections. Asked by a journalist, Shehi stated that he is open to a post-election agreement with the Democratic Party on the condition that this party is not represented by Berisha.
Mundësia – The third group that broke away from the Democratic Party is called Mundësia and is led by businessman Agron Shehaj. This also declares itself a center-right party. Its chairman was a member of the Democratic Party and in the 2021 elections he managed to win around 14 thousand favorable votes from the votes of the DP, a result that, if repeated, will most likely guarantee him a mandate.
On the ballot, citizens will also have three other parties: the Homeland Movement, the Albanian National Alliance and the New Democracy Alliance./BIRN
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