By Eduard Zaloshnja
Yesterday, Edi Rama gathered the political leaders of SP districts and the left-wing mayors of the country at the Palace of Congresses. Although there was no public statement after that meeting, there are rumors that Rama has asked for an improvement in the result of the SP in every district, compared to the 2021 elections.
In 2021, the SP secured 74 parliamentary mandates. If the result of the SP in each district is improved, it falls to get at least 86 mandates in 2025 (74 plus from 1 to 12 districts). But how possible is this?
From a statistical analysis of the official results of the 2021 elections, it appears that the SP received over 104 thousand valid votes more than it needed for the 74 mandates it secured in those elections.
This is calculated by reducing the votes of the SP in each district to the point where its mandates would not be endangered by the other parties in the race. For example, in the Tirana District, the SP would secure 18 mandates, even if it received 21,715 valid votes less than it received. Or in the Elbasan District, he would secure 8 mandates even if he received 20,078 valid votes less than he received (see the accompanying table).
Rama aims for at least 86 mandates, but will he achieve them?
The aforementioned analysis serves as a statistical guide for the possibility of adding 1 mandate for the SP in each district.
Tirana District is the most likely candidate, because the SP received there 21,715 valid votes more than it needed to secure the 18 mandates of 2021. Moreover, as a result of the increase in the number of citizens who appear in the Civil Registry of the district, Tirana will have 37 parliamentary mandates (from the 36 it had).
Elbasan district is the second most likely candidate, because the SP received there 20078 valid votes more than it needed to secure the 8 mandates of 2021.
The third is the Dibër District, where the SP received 14,232 valid votes more than it needed to secure the 2 mandates of 2021.
In the counties of Shkodër, Lezhë, Durrës, Fier, Vlorë and Korçë, it is statistically possible that the SP will add one mandate each, if it somehow improves the percentages of votes in 2021. It will be more difficult in the districts of Berat and Gjirokastër, while almost impossible in the Kukës District.
NOTE: In any district where the mayors of the SP scored a deep lead over Berisha’s candidates, there is a possibility that the SP will add 2 mandates, compared to 2021
