A number of small parties are calculating the minimum number of votes they need to win seats. This number depends heavily on turnout and therefore varies from region to region. The results of the 2021 elections provide a rough idea.
Theoretically, the 140 deputies of the Albanian Parliament represent the political body, which, in the May 11 elections, consists of 3.7 million voters. This is only theoretically, because a significant part has been in emigration, many for decades, and consequently are part of the political body only nominally.
In the 2021 elections, when the number of voters in the civil registry was 3.59 million, turnout was 46% and, on average, approximately 12 thousand voters elected one deputy. Taking into account that some votes were invalid, and some went to small parties and independent candidates who did not produce mandates, the four parties that received mandates received an average of 11 thousand votes per mandate.
The D-Hondt formula of higher averages is known to favor the largest party. Consequently, at the national level, the Socialist Party won each of its 74 mandates for every 10,400 votes. The Democratic Party received each of its 59 mandates for approximately 10,600 votes while the Social Democratic Party received three mandates with an average of 11,800 votes. The Socialist Movement for Integration, today the Freedom Party, received only four mandates despite collecting 108 thousand votes at the national level, with an average of 27 thousand votes per mandate.
The number of votes needed for a mandate in each district in the May 11 elections will depend on turnout, which is something unpredictable. Albania undergoes strong demographic changes every year, and the 2023 Census found in Albania approximately half a million fewer people than the 2011 Census, which suggests an annual decline in the resident population of about 40 thousand people and an annual decline in the voting population of about 30 thousand people.
This means that between the 2021 and 2025 elections, about 120 thousand voters may have left. But this is impossible to know with certainty because, although it is certain that between the Census and the Census, there was a population decline, we cannot know whether this population decline occurred uniformly throughout the entire period or whether there were years when the decline was stronger and other years when it was less.
In these elections, turnout is also expected to be affected by the approximately 246,000 Albanians who have registered to vote by mail. If all of them vote, turnout will likely be higher than in 2021 and, consequently, the number of votes needed to capture the last mandate will be higher.
Last mandates by districts
The D-Hond formula divides the number of votes each party has received, first by 1, then by 2, and so on, until the number of mandates to be divided runs out. The party with the highest quotient from the division receives the mandate. Consequently, what is being discussed, and which is decisive for the overall outcome of the elections, is the so-called last mandate. This is also the mandate that is practically aimed at by all small parties, especially in Tirana.
The last mandate is allocated in each district depending on the turnout. In the 2021 elections, the turnout in Tirana was particularly high, 53% compared to the national average of 46%. This means that the last mandate in Tirana was won by 12 thousand votes, while in Dibër, the last mandate was won by 7255 votes. The other districts are in between these two figures. In Shkodër, the Social Democratic Party managed to grab two mandates with a little more than 16 thousand votes.
Burnt votes help the big ones
The data from the 2021 elections suggest that many key mandates for the majority were won thanks to “burnt votes”, i.e. votes won by small parties, mainly LSI. In the districts of Durrës and Berat, LSI lost a mandate by only a few dozen votes. Consequently, the division of the main opposition into four competing coalitions, Berisha-Meta, Shehi-Alibeaj, Shehaj’s Opportunity Party and Basha’s Euro-Atlantic, suggests that in many districts there will be many votes that will not produce a mandate. The mandates lost by these parties will fall into the lap of the political force that obtains a simple majority in each district. (BIRN)
