rani dhe Arabia Saudite jan\u00eb p\u00ebrplasur s\u00ebrish pas sulmeve mbi rafinerit\u00eb e naft\u00ebs. Por p\u00ebrse ekziston kjo armiq\u00ebsi e fort\u00eb mes k\u00ebtyre dy vendeve?<\/p>\n
Nga Jonathan Marcus,\u00a0BBC<\/strong><\/p>\n P\u00ebrse nuk shkojn\u00eb mir\u00eb Irani dhe Arabia Saudite?<\/p>\n <\/ins><\/div>\n<\/div>\n Arabia Saudite dhe Irani- dy fqinj\u00eb t\u00eb fuqish\u00ebm- jan\u00eb ky\u00e7ur n\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb ashp\u00ebr p\u00ebr mbizot\u00ebrim rajonal. P\u00ebrplasja dhjet\u00ebravje\u00e7are mes tyre \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsuar nga dallimet fetare. Secila ndjek nj\u00eb nga dy deg\u00ebt kryesore t\u00eb Islamit- Irani \u00ebsht\u00eb kryesisht shia, kurse Arabia Saudite e sheh veten si fuqia kryesore myslimane suni.<\/p>\n Kjo skiz\u00ebm fetare pasqyrohet edhe n\u00eb hart\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb t\u00eb Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme, ku vendet q\u00eb kan\u00eb shumic\u00eb shia ose suni i drejtohen Iranit ose Arabis\u00eb Saudite p\u00ebr mb\u00ebshtetje ose udh\u00ebzim. Historikisht, Arabia Saudite, nj\u00eb monarki dhe vendlindja e Islamit, e sheh veten si udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsen e bot\u00ebs myslimane. Sidoqoft\u00eb ata u sfiduan n\u00eb vitin 1979 nga Revolucioni Islamik n\u00eb Iran, q\u00eb krijoi nj\u00eb lloj t\u00eb ri shteti n\u00eb rajon- nj\u00eb teokraci revolucionare- q\u00eb kishte p\u00ebr q\u00ebllim t\u00eb qart\u00eb t\u00eb eksportonte k\u00ebt\u00eb model p\u00ebrtej kufijve t\u00eb tij.<\/p>\n Gjat\u00eb 15 viteve t\u00eb fundit n\u00eb ve\u00e7anti, dallimet mes Arabis\u00eb Saudite dhe Iranit jan\u00eb thelluar nga nj\u00eb seri ngjarjesh.<\/p>\n N\u00eb vitin 2003, nj\u00eb pushtim i Irakut i udh\u00ebhequr nga SHBA rr\u00ebzoi Saddam Hussein, nj\u00eb arab suni, q\u00eb ishte kund\u00ebrshtar i madh i Iranit. Kjo hoqi nj\u00eb kund\u00ebrbalanc\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme ushtarake ndaj Iranit dhe hapi rrug\u00ebn p\u00ebr nj\u00eb qeveri t\u00eb dominuar nga shia n\u00eb Bagdad. Ndikimi i Iranit n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb vend \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb rritje prej at\u00ebher\u00eb.<\/p>\n Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2011, nj\u00eb seri kryengritjesh n\u00eb bot\u00ebn arabe shkaktuan paq\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebri politike n\u00eb rajon. Irani dhe Arabia saudite e shkfryt\u00ebzuan k\u00ebt\u00eb situat\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb zgjeruar ndikimin e tyre, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb Siri, Bahrein dhe Jemen, duke shtuar m\u00eb tej dyshimet e nd\u00ebrsjellta.<\/p>\n Kritik\u00ebt e Iranit thon\u00eb se ai ka p\u00ebr q\u00ebllim t\u00eb vendos\u00eb fuqin\u00eb e tij n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb rajonin duke kontrolluar korridoret tok\u00ebsore q\u00eb shtrihen nga Irani deri n\u00eb Mesdhe.<\/p>\n Pse jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb m\u00eb keq gj\u00ebrat?<\/p>\n Rivaliteti strategjik po nxehet p\u00ebr shkak se Irani n\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00ebnyra po e fiton betej\u00ebn rajonale.<\/p>\n N\u00eb Siri, mb\u00ebshtetja e Iranit dhe Rusis\u00eb p\u00ebr presidentin Bashar al-Assad i ka mund\u00ebsuar atij q\u00eb t\u00eb mposht\u00eb grupet rebele t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetura nga Arabia Saudite.<\/p>\n Arabia Saudite \u00ebsht\u00eb duke tentuar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb d\u00ebshp\u00ebruar t\u00eb kufizoj\u00eb ndikimin n\u00eb rritje t\u00eb Iranit, nd\u00ebrsa aventurizmi militarist i princit t\u00eb ri dhe impulsiv t\u00eb kuror\u00ebs, Mohammed bin Salman- sundimtari de facto i vendit- i ka p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsuar tensionet rajonale.<\/p>\n Ai i ka shpallur luft\u00eb l\u00ebvizjes rebele Houthi n\u00eb Jemenin fqinj, pjes\u00ebrisht p\u00ebr t\u00eb frenuar ndikimin e perceptuar t\u00eb Iranit atje, por pas kat\u00ebr vitesh luftime, ky po del nj\u00eb bast i kushtuesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n Irani ka mohuar akuzat se \u00ebsht\u00eb duke kontrabanduar arm\u00eb tek rebel\u00ebt Houthi, megjith\u00ebse raportet e vazhdueshme t\u00eb nj\u00eb paneli me ekspert\u00eb t\u00eb OKB kan\u00eb treguar ndihm\u00eb t\u00eb konsiderueshme nga Teherani p\u00ebr rebel\u00ebt Houthi n\u00eb armatim dhe teknologji.<\/p>\n Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb n\u00eb Liban, aleati i Iranit, grupi i milicis\u00eb shiite, Hezbollahu, udh\u00ebheq nj\u00eb bllok politikisht t\u00eb fuqish\u00ebm dhe kontrollon nj\u00eb forc\u00eb t\u00eb armator r\u00ebndsh\u00ebm. Shum\u00eb ekspert\u00eb besojn\u00eb se saudit\u00ebt e detyruan kryeministrin libanez Saad Hariri q\u00eb t\u00eb jepte dor\u00ebheqje n\u00eb vitin 2017 p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb implikimit t\u00eb Hezbollah n\u00eb konfliktet rajonale. M\u00eb von\u00eb ai u kthye n\u00eb Liban dhe e t\u00ebrhoqi dor\u00ebheqjen.<\/p>\n Ka edhe forca t\u00eb jashtme n\u00eb loj\u00eb. Arabia Saudite \u00ebsht\u00eb trim\u00ebruar nga mb\u00ebshtetja e administrat\u00ebs s\u00eb Trump, kurse Izraeli, q\u00eb e sheh Iranin si nj\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim vdekjeprur\u00ebs, \u00ebsht\u00eb duke mb\u00ebshtetur n\u00eb nj\u00eb sens p\u00ebrpjekjen saudite p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbajtur Iranin.<\/p>\n Shteti hebre ka frik\u00eb nga prania e luft\u00ebtar\u00ebve pro-iranian\u00eb n\u00eb Siri, gjithmon\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb pran\u00eb kufirit izraelit.<\/p>\n Izraeli dhe Arabia Saudite ishin dy vendet m\u00eb t\u00eb vendosura kund\u00ebr marr\u00ebveshjes nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare t\u00eb vitit 2015, q\u00eb kufizonte programin b\u00ebrthamor t\u00eb Iranit, duke insistuar se nuk shkonte aq larg sa t\u00eb pengonte \u00e7do shans q\u00eb Irani t\u00eb prodhonte bomb\u00ebn.<\/p>\n Cil\u00ebt jan\u00eb aleat\u00ebt rajonal\u00eb?<\/p>\n E gjith\u00eb harta strategjike n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme reflekton ndarjen shia-suni.<\/p>\n N\u00eb kampin pro-saudit jan\u00eb shumica e aktor\u00ebve suni t\u00eb Gjirit- Emiratet e Bashkuara Arabe dhe Bahreni- si dhe Egjipti dhe Jordania.<\/p>\n N\u00eb kampin iranian \u00ebsht\u00eb Siria e Bashar al-Assad, nj\u00eb an\u00ebtar i nj\u00eb sekti heterodoks shia, q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur tek grupet militantet shia pro-iraniane, p\u00ebrfshi k\u00ebtu edhe Hezbollahun, p\u00ebr t\u00eb luftuar grupimet rebele me shumic\u00eb suni.<\/p>\n Qeveria me shumic\u00eb shia n\u00eb Irak \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb aleat i ngusht\u00eb i Iranit, edhe pse n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb paradoksale mban marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie t\u00eb ngushta me Uashingtonin, prej nga varen p\u00ebr ndihm\u00eb kund\u00ebr t\u00eb ashtuquajturit Shteti Islamik.<\/p>\n Si po luhet rivaliteti saudito-iranian?<\/p>\n N\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00ebnyra ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb ekuivalent rajonal i Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Ftoht\u00eb, si\u00e7 b\u00ebn\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara me Bashkimin Sovjetik n\u00eb nj\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb tensionuar ushtarake p\u00ebr shum\u00eb vite.<\/p>\n Irania dhe Arabia Saudite nuk luftojn\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt, por jan\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshira n\u00eb nj\u00eb larmi luft\u00ebrash me \u2018prokur\u00eb\u2019 n\u00eb rajon (konflikte ku ata mb\u00ebshtesin pal\u00ebt dhe milicit\u00eb rivale).<\/p>\n Siria \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb shembull i duksh\u00ebm, nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb Jemen, Arabia Saudite ka akuzuar Iranin p\u00ebr furnizimin me raketa balistike t\u00eb q\u00eblluara n\u00eb drejtim t\u00eb territorit saudit nga l\u00ebvizja rebele Houthi.<\/p>\n A po shkojm\u00eb drejt nj\u00eb lufte t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt mes Arabis\u00eb Saudite dhe Iranit?<\/p>\n Deri m\u00eb tani Irani dhe Rijadi kan\u00eb luftuar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb t\u00ebrthort\u00eb. Asnj\u00eb prej atyre nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitur p\u00ebr nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdejt\u00eb me tjetrin, por nj\u00eb sulm i madh Houthi kund\u00ebr kryeqytetin saudit, ose si n\u00eb rastin m\u00eb t\u00eb fundit, kund\u00ebr nj\u00eb objektivi kryesor ekonomik, mund t\u00eb trazoj\u00eb situat\u00ebn.<\/p>\n Sulmet Houthi ndaj infrastruktur\u00ebs s\u00eb Arabis\u00eb Saudite kan\u00eb shtuar pashmangsh\u00ebm nj\u00eb front t\u00eb ri n\u00eb konfrontimin mes Teheranit dhe Rijadit. Ashtu si n\u00eb Gjirin Persik, ku Irani dhe Arabia p\u00ebrballen me nj\u00ebri-tjetrin n\u00eb kufirin detar, tensionet n\u00eb rritje mund t\u00eb rrezikojn\u00eb nj\u00eb konflikt m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb.<\/p>\n P\u00ebr SHBA dhe fuqit\u00eb e tjera per\u00ebndimore, liria e lundrimit n\u00eb Gjirin Persik \u00ebsht\u00eb esenciale dhe \u00e7do konflikt q\u00eb k\u00ebrkon t\u00eb bllokoj\u00eb rrug\u00ebt ujore- jetike p\u00ebr transportin nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar dhe transportin e naft\u00ebs- mund t\u00eb t\u00ebrheq\u00eb leht\u00ebsisht forcat detare dhe ajrore t\u00eb SHBA.<\/p>\n P\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb, SHBA dhe aleat\u00ebt e saj e kan\u00eb par\u00eb Iranin si nj\u00eb forc\u00eb destabilizuese n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme. Udh\u00ebheqja saudite e shikon gjithmon\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb Iranin si nj\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim ekzistencial dhe princi i kuror\u00ebs duket se \u00ebsht\u00eb i gatsh\u00ebm q\u00eb t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarr\u00eb \u00e7far\u00ebdo veprimi q\u00eb ai e sheh t\u00eb nevojsh\u00ebm, kudo q\u00eb e gjykon t\u00eb nevojsh\u00ebm, p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrballuar ndikimin n\u00eb rritje t\u00eb Teheranit.<\/p>\n Dob\u00ebsia e Arabis\u00eb Saudite u tregua nga k\u00ebto sulme t\u00eb fundit n\u00eb rafinerit\u00eb e saj t\u00eb naft\u00ebs. N\u00ebse shp\u00ebrthen lufta, ajo mund t\u00eb vij\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb ndonj\u00eb aksidenti, jo me q\u00ebllim. Por aktivizimi i vet\u00eb saudit\u00ebve, i inkurajuar pjes\u00ebrisht nga nj\u00eb pasiguri e vazhdueshme p\u00ebr q\u00ebllimet e vet\u00eb administrat\u00ebs s\u00eb Trump n\u00eb rajon, shton n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb pashmangshme nj\u00eb element tjet\u00ebr tensioni.<\/p>\n FUQIA USHTARAKE<\/p>\n Forca t\u00eb armatosura<\/p>\n Irani: 563 mij\u00eb<\/p>\n Arabia Saudite: 251 mij\u00eb<\/p>\n Tanke<\/p>\n Irani: 1513<\/p>\n Arabia Saudite: 900<\/p>\n Artileri<\/p>\n Irani: 6798<\/p>\n Arabia Saudite: 761<\/p>\n Flota ajrore<\/p>\n Irani: 336 (flot\u00eb e vjet\u00ebr n\u00eb nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr riparime)<\/p>\n Arabia Saudite: 338 (flot\u00eb moderne p\u00ebrfshi 64 avion\u00eb Tajfun)<\/p>\n Anije patrullimi<\/p>\n Irani: 194<\/p>\n Arabia Saudite: 11<\/p>\n N\u00ebndet\u00ebse<\/p>\n Irani: 21<\/p>\n Arabia Saudite: 0<\/p>\n Destrojera\/fregata<\/p>\n Irani: 0<\/p>\n Arabia Saudite: 7<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" rani dhe Arabia Saudite jan\u00eb p\u00ebrplasur s\u00ebrish pas sulmeve mbi rafinerit\u00eb e naft\u00ebs. Por p\u00ebrse ekziston kjo armiq\u00ebsi e fort\u00eb mes k\u00ebtyre dy vendeve? Nga Jonathan Marcus,\u00a0BBC P\u00ebrse nuk shkojn\u00eb mir\u00eb Irani dhe Arabia Saudite? Arabia Saudite dhe Irani- dy fqinj\u00eb t\u00eb fuqish\u00ebm- jan\u00eb ky\u00e7ur n\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb ashp\u00ebr p\u00ebr mbizot\u00ebrim rajonal. P\u00ebrplasja dhjet\u00ebravje\u00e7are […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2013,"featured_media":107458,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241,191],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-107457","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-aktualitet","8":"category-bota"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107457","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2013"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=107457"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107457\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/107458"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=107457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=107457"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=107457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}