Allan Lichtman, profesor i Historis\u00eb n\u00eb Universitetin Amerikan n\u00eb Uashington, ka parashikuar sakt\u00eb \u00e7do fitues t\u00eb zgjedhjeve presidenciale, n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara q\u00eb prej vitit 1984, duke p\u00ebrdorur “13 element\u00ebt ky\u00e7\u00eb”, q\u00eb sipas tij, sjellin n\u00eb pushtet triumfuesin, duke nisur nga nj\u00eb analiz\u00eb e fushat\u00ebs elektorale.<\/p>\n
“K\u00ebto \u00e7el\u00ebsa japin iden\u00eb e t\u00eb gjith\u00eb panoram\u00ebs. N\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb tyre, un\u00eb shoh p\u00ebrtej zgjedhjes s\u00eb nj\u00eb presidenti amerikan, jo duke nisur nga fjalimet, sondazhet, debatet, fondet p\u00ebr fushat\u00eb, truket q\u00eb kandidat\u00ebt dhe stafet p\u00ebrdorin gjat\u00eb fushat\u00ebs”, <\/em>shprehet profesori.<\/p>\n Ajo \u00e7ka ka r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi, sipas Lichtman, \u00ebsht\u00eb fuqia q\u00eb Presidenti amerikan ka mbi ekonomin\u00eb dhe zhvillimin social. Profesori duket se ka lajme t\u00eb k\u00ebqija, s\u00eb paku p\u00ebr Donald Trump: “Parashikimi im \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb Donald Trump, do t\u00eb b\u00ebhet Presidenti i par\u00eb n\u00eb detyr\u00eb, q\u00eb nga koha e George H. W. Bush n\u00eb vitin 1992, q\u00eb do t\u2019i humbas\u00eb zgjedhjet dhe nuk do t\u00eb rizgjidhet”.<\/em><\/p>\n Teksa Biden, edhe sipas sondazheve, premton t\u00eb jet\u00eb fitues i k\u00ebtyre zgjedhjeve, sipas modelit t\u00eb profesor Lichtman, ekonomia n\u00eb ng\u00ebr\u00e7 p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb pandemis\u00eb korona*virus, si dhe protestat komb\u00ebtare antiracore, duket se e vulos\u00ebn fatin e Trump n\u00eb k\u00ebto zgjedhje: “Kurr\u00eb n\u00eb historin\u00eb e Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara, nj\u00eb president q\u00eb drejton Sht\u00ebpin\u00eb e Bardh\u00eb, nuk ka patur kaq shum\u00eb probleme, q\u00eb t\u00eb humbas\u00eb pushtetin dhe lavdin\u00eb n\u00eb kaq pak koh\u00eb. Nuk ka ndodhur kurr\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb”.<\/em><\/p>\n Por, ai shton se republikan\u00ebt shpresojn\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb vot\u00eb ndryshe t\u00eb minoriteteve dhe t\u00eb rinjve, nd\u00ebrsa gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb, po rriten dyshimet p\u00ebr nd\u00ebrhyrjen ruse n\u00eb rezultatin e zgjedhjeve: “Shikoni se \u00e7far\u00eb ndodh. Baza republikane ka njer\u00ebz t\u00eb bardh\u00eb, t\u00eb vjetrit si un\u00eb dhe si ne, nuk do t\u00eb ket\u00eb m\u00eb. P\u00ebr fat t\u00eb keq, ne nuk mund t\u00eb jetojm\u00eb deri n\u00eb 150 vje\u00e7.<\/em><\/p>\n Ndaj, tani po p\u00ebrpiqen q\u00eb t\u00eb shtypin vot\u00ebn e baz\u00ebs demokrate, t\u00eb t\u00eb rinjve dhe minoriteteve. Kjo m\u00eb shqet\u00ebson mua. S\u00eb dyti, nd\u00ebrhyrja ruse. Ata po kthehen. Kan\u00eb m\u00ebsuar shum\u00eb p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb k\u00ebtyre 4 viteve. Ndoshta, mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqen t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyjn\u00eb n\u00eb teknologjin\u00eb ton\u00eb t\u00eb votimit, apo qendrat e votimit.<\/em><\/p>\n Edhe nj\u00eb her\u00eb, Donald Trump e mir\u00ebpret nd\u00ebrhyrjen ruse. K\u00ebto jan\u00eb, padyshim k*\u00ebrc\u00ebnime m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha p\u00ebr demokracin\u00eb ton\u00eb. Ato jan\u00eb, n\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb sistemi im i pagabuesh\u00ebm i parashikimit. Un\u00eb i q\u00ebndroj parashikimit tim dhe k\u00ebtyre shqet\u00ebsimeve”.<\/em><\/p>\n Pas 4 dekadash parashikimesh t\u00eb pagabueshme, Lichtman pranon se ndihet v\u00ebrtet nervoz n\u00eb \u00e7do dit\u00eb zgjedhjeje, sepse k\u00ebrkon t\u00eb vendos\u00eb nj\u00eb rekord bot\u00ebror: “Sot jam 73 vje\u00e7. E b\u00ebj k\u00ebt\u00eb gj\u00eb prej 40 vitesh dhe \u00e7do 4-\u00ebr vjet, ndjej ende flutura n\u00eb stomak. Un\u00eb b\u00ebj nj\u00eb parashikim t\u00eb qart\u00eb, pa m\u00ebdyshje se kush do t\u00eb jet\u00eb fituesi. Nuk eci me probabilitet. Dhe nuk e di \u00e7far\u00eb mund t\u00eb m\u00eb ndodh\u00eb n\u00ebse gabohem. Ndaj them q\u00eb kam flutura ende dhe nervozizmi shtohet, sidomos nat\u00ebn e zgjedhjeve”.<\/em><\/p>\n Profesor Lichtman, pranon se nj\u00eb nga momentet e tij m\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira ishte kur parashikoi n\u00eb 2016-\u00ebn fitoren e Donald Trump, edhe pse t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt ishin t\u00eb sigurt p\u00ebr triumfin e Hillary Clinton.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Allan Lichtman, profesor i Historis\u00eb n\u00eb Universitetin Amerikan n\u00eb Uashington, ka parashikuar sakt\u00eb \u00e7do fitues t\u00eb zgjedhjeve presidenciale, n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara q\u00eb prej vitit 1984, duke p\u00ebrdorur “13 element\u00ebt ky\u00e7\u00eb”, q\u00eb sipas tij, sjellin n\u00eb pushtet triumfuesin, duke nisur nga nj\u00eb analiz\u00eb e fushat\u00ebs elektorale. “K\u00ebto \u00e7el\u00ebsa japin iden\u00eb e t\u00eb gjith\u00eb panoram\u00ebs. N\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2016,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[191],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-151065","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-bota"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151065","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2016"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=151065"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151065\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=151065"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=151065"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=151065"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}