Pesimizmi q\u00eb mbizot\u00ebronte n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti, \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur n\u00eb jav\u00ebt e fundit, shkruan The Economist. Flukset tregtare kan\u00eb sh\u00ebnuar rritje n\u00eb Azi, shitjet me pakic\u00eb n\u00eb Amerik\u00eb kan\u00eb qen\u00eb t\u00eb forta, madje edhe industria prodhuese aspak premtuese e Europ\u00ebs, ka treguar s\u00eb fundmi shenja jete.<\/p>\n
Por asnj\u00eb prej faktor\u00ebve t\u00eb m\u00ebsip\u00ebrm nuk do t\u00eb ndikonte aq shum\u00eb n\u00eb shtimin e pesimizmit t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb bot\u00ebrore, sa rritja e \u00e7mimit t\u00eb naft\u00ebs. \u00c7mimet e naft\u00ebs, t\u00eb cilat po vijojn\u00eb t\u00eb rriten, p.sh., m\u00eb 23 prill \u00e7mimi i nj\u00eb fu\u00e7ie Brent e tejkaloi vler\u00ebn prej 74 dollar\u00ebsh amerikan\u00eb (nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht edhe niveli m\u00eb i lart\u00eb n\u00eb gjasht\u00eb muajt e fundit), \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb prej k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimeve m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore.<\/p>\n
Edhe pse dinamikat e tregut t\u00eb naft\u00ebs kan\u00eb ndryshuar n\u00eb dekad\u00ebn e fundit, nafta vazhdon t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb prej faktor\u00ebve me ndikim m\u00eb t\u00eb madh n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore. Rritja e fundit n\u00eb \u00e7mimin e naft\u00ebs ka ardhur si pasoj\u00eb e parashikimit t\u00eb nj\u00eb goditje t\u00eb mundshme ndaj furnizimit, sesa t\u00eb nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
M\u00eb 22 prill, Amerika tha se do t\u00eb ndalonte nj\u00eb num\u00ebr t\u00eb madh ekonomish t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb Kin\u00ebn, Indin\u00eb dhe Turqin\u00eb, nga importi i naft\u00ebs iraniane. K\u00ebto masa u mor\u00ebn kryesisht pasi Presidenti Donald Trump u t\u00ebrhoq nga nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje b\u00ebrthamore me Iranin n\u00eb vitin 2018. Data e p\u00ebrfundimit t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj marr\u00ebveshjeje, 2 maji i k\u00ebtij viti, mund t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb n\u00eb reduktimin e furnizimit global me m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 1 milion fu\u00e7i nafte n\u00eb dit\u00eb (rreth 1% t\u00eb totalit).<\/p>\n
Por ky nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi i vet\u00ebm ndaj furnizimit. Lufta \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr faktor q\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnon prodhimin n\u00eb Libi. Sanksionet e nd\u00ebrmarra kund\u00ebr Venezuel\u00ebs kan\u00eb ndaluar furnizimin e tregut. Edhe pse mund t\u00eb krijohet mund\u00ebsia p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb naft\u00eb n\u00eb Permian Basin n\u00eb Teksas, cil\u00ebsia nuk do t\u00eb jet\u00eb e nj\u00ebjt\u00eb me at\u00eb q\u00eb nxirret n\u00eb Venezuel\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Pas njoftimit t\u00eb fundit t\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb nga shteti amerikan, Komandanti i Forcave Detare t\u00eb Iranit tha se n\u00ebse Iranit i kufizohet p\u00ebrdorimi i ngushtic\u00ebs strategjike t\u00eb Hormuzit, n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet s\u00eb cil\u00ebs kalon nj\u00eb e pesta e furnizimit global t\u00eb naft\u00ebs, ai do t\u00eb mbyll\u00eb ngushtic\u00ebn edhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjitha kalimet e tjera nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare.<\/p>\n
Inventar\u00ebt e naft\u00ebs jan\u00eb t\u00eb pakt\u00eb dhe nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb i qart\u00eb fakti n\u00ebse prodhuesit e tjer\u00eb do t\u00eb rrisin prodhimin n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb ai t\u00eb jet\u00eb i mjaftuesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb kompensuar goditjen q\u00eb mund t\u2019i b\u00ebhet furnizimit me naft\u00eb. N\u00eb nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb afatgjat\u00eb, Arabia Saudite dhe an\u00ebtar\u00ebt e tjer\u00eb t\u00eb OPEC-ut, duhet t\u00eb shmangin rritjen e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb larta t\u00eb naft\u00ebs, gj\u00eb q\u00eb do t\u00eb \u00e7onte n\u00eb nj\u00eb val\u00eb t\u00eb re t\u00eb kapitalit dhe q\u00eb do t\u00eb rriste prodhimin e shistit argjilor amerikan.<\/p>\n
Por hera e fundit q\u00eb sudit\u00ebt pranuan k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn e Sht\u00ebpis\u00eb s\u00eb Bardh\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb nxjerr\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb naft\u00eb, ata u godit\u00ebn thuajse menj\u00ebher\u00eb m\u00eb pas nga l\u00ebvizja q\u00eb b\u00ebri z. Trump pasi u t\u00ebrhoq nga marr\u00ebveshja e Iranit. N\u00eb publik ata kan\u00eb premtuar se do t\u00eb mundohen t\u00eb ruajn\u00eb ekuilibrin e tregut, por shtuan se nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nevoja p\u00ebr veprim t\u00eb menj\u00ebhersh\u00ebm. Zbulimi i ndikimit t\u00eb \u00e7mimit t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb naft\u00ebs n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i nd\u00ebrlikuar sesa ka qen\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb Amerik\u00eb, t\u00eb gjith\u00eb ata q\u00eb kan\u00eb makina, t\u00eb cilat harxhojn\u00eb sasi t\u00eb m\u00ebdha nafte, do t\u2019i duhet q\u00eb t\u00eb paguajn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019i furnizuar ato me naft\u00eb. Por q\u00eb nga revolucioni i shistit argjilor, ka pasur nj\u00eb p\u00ebrfitim kompensues ndaj PBB-s\u00eb amerikane, sepse \u00e7mimet m\u00eb t\u00eb larta stimulojn\u00eb investimet n\u00eb zona si Permian Basis.<\/p>\n
Vende t\u00eb tjera prodhuese jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gatshme t\u00eb shpenzojn\u00eb sasi t\u00eb m\u00ebdha parash, m\u00eb shum\u00eb sesa ata kan\u00eb shpenzuar n\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtesin k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn globale. \u00c7mimi m\u00eb i lart\u00eb i naft\u00ebs duhet t\u00eb sjell\u00eb edhe p\u00ebrfitimin e emetimeve m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta t\u00eb karbonit (p\u00ebr aq koh\u00eb sa nuk nxitet zbulimi i zonave t\u00eb reja t\u00eb nxjerrjes s\u00eb naft\u00ebs). Gjithsesi p\u00ebr momentin, \u00e7mimet m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb naft\u00ebs jan\u00eb nj\u00eb lajm i keq p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb globale. Nga kjo situat\u00eb do t\u00eb goditeshin padyshim pikat e saj m\u00eb t\u00eb dob\u00ebta.<\/p>\n
Europa, ekonomia e s\u00eb cil\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje m\u00eb t\u00eb keqe sesa ajo e Amerik\u00ebs, nuk ka industri t\u00eb shistit p\u00ebr t\u00eb kompensuar nj\u00eb goditje t\u00eb mundshme ndaj furnizimit t\u00eb konsumator\u00ebve. Kina, e cila importon sasi t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb naft\u00ebs ishte burimi i shum\u00eb prej shqet\u00ebsimeve t\u00eb koh\u00ebve t\u00eb fundit t\u00eb rritjes globale. Krizat ekonomike n\u00eb Turqi, Argjentin\u00eb dhe Pakistan do t\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsohen m\u00eb shum\u00eb nga rritja e inflacionit dhe nga deficiti m\u00eb i lart\u00eb i llogaris\u00eb korrente sesa rritja e \u00e7mimit t\u00eb naft\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
\u00c7mimet e larta t\u00eb naft\u00ebs mund t\u00eb reduktojn\u00eb edhe lirin\u00eb e veprimit t\u00eb bankier\u00ebve t\u00eb disa prej bankave qendrore. Pasi \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs u rrit\u00ebn n\u00eb 2018, disa banka qendrore n\u00eb tregjet n\u00eb zhvillim rrjedhimisht rrit\u00ebn normat e interesit, nga frika e nj\u00eb inflacioni t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebt\u00eb vit, politik\u00ebb\u00ebr\u00ebsit n\u00eb Amerik\u00eb dhe Europ\u00eb kan\u00eb qen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb leht\u00ebsojn\u00eb q\u00ebndrimin e politik\u00ebs monetare, duke u mund\u00ebsuar ekonomive nj\u00eb nxitje t\u00eb nevojshme p\u00ebr rritjen. Por \u00e7mimet e larta t\u00eb naft\u00ebs mund ta kthejn\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb trend n\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt. Me m\u00eb shum\u00eb tregje t\u00eb pun\u00ebs t\u00eb kufizuara, bankier\u00ebt qendror\u00eb ka shum\u00eb gjasa q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshihen nga presioni inflacionist i \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb faz\u00eb, nj\u00eb goditje e \u00e7mimit t\u00eb naft\u00ebs ka shum\u00eb gjasa q\u00eb t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb, por me ekonomin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore, ende n\u00eb nj\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb brisht\u00eb, ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb risk i lart\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u marr\u00eb.<\/p>\n
<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Pesimizmi q\u00eb mbizot\u00ebronte n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti, \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur n\u00eb jav\u00ebt e fundit, shkruan The Economist. Flukset tregtare kan\u00eb sh\u00ebnuar rritje n\u00eb Azi, shitjet me pakic\u00eb n\u00eb Amerik\u00eb kan\u00eb qen\u00eb t\u00eb forta, madje edhe industria prodhuese aspak premtuese e Europ\u00ebs, ka treguar s\u00eb fundmi shenja jete. Por asnj\u00eb prej faktor\u00ebve t\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2013,"featured_media":48039,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241,191],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-83635","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-aktualitet","8":"category-bota"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83635","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2013"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83635"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83635\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/48039"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83635"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83635"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83635"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}