S\u00eb paku deri m\u00eb vitin 2050 shqiptar\u00ebt q\u00eb do t\u00eb emigrojn\u00eb do t\u00eb jen\u00eb n\u00eb nivele shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb larta se ato q\u00eb do t\u00eb zgjedhin t\u00eb rikthehen p\u00ebr t\u00eb jetuar n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb parashikim i fundit i Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore, tregon se p\u00ebr periudh\u00ebn 2017- 2022 emigracioni neto (diferenca nd\u00ebrmjet t\u00eb ikurve dhe atyre q\u00eb rikthehen) do t\u00eb jet\u00eb-40,000 persona.<\/p>\n
Deri n\u00eb vitin 2047, Banka parashikon q\u00eb emigracioni neto t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb me t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtat ritme, pra \u00e7do 5 vjet t\u00eb ikin (neto) nga vendi rreth 40 mij\u00eb persona, duke e \u00e7uar numrin total t\u00eb t\u00eb larguarve (duke zbritur ata q\u00eb kthehen) n\u00eb 280 mij\u00eb persona.
\nMe shtes\u00ebn natyrore t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb q\u00eb po shkon drejt zeros dhe nivelin e lart\u00eb t\u00eb emigracionit, Shqip\u00ebria pritet t\u00eb tkurret me shpejt\u00ebsi.<\/p>\n
Shtesa natyrore drejt zeros<\/strong><\/p>\n Diferenca nd\u00ebrmjet lindjeve dhe vdekjeve, ajo q\u00eb p\u00ebrcakton shtes\u00ebn natyrore t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb duke ngushtuar me shpejt\u00ebsi vit pas viti, duke lajm\u00ebruar se shum\u00eb shpejt numri i vdekjeve n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb i lart\u00eb se i lindjeve. Kjo do t\u00eb \u00e7onte popullsin\u00eb e vendit n\u00eb r\u00ebnie pa kthim, pa marr\u00eb n\u00eb konsiderat\u00eb fenomenin e emigracionit.<\/p>\n Gjat\u00eb vitit 2018, shtesa natyrore e popullsie ishte 7130 persona, niveli m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt s\u00eb paku q\u00eb nga viti 1948, pak vite pas p\u00ebrfundimit t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore sipas t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb INSTAT. Por t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat m\u00eb t\u00eb hershme, por jo t\u00eb grupuara vit pas viti, tregojn\u00eb se Shqip\u00ebria ka shtes\u00ebn natyrore t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb n\u00eb nivelin m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt q\u00eb nga viti 1923, pasi shtesa e popullsis\u00eb gjat\u00eb viteve 1923-1945, sipas t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave zyrtare, ishte mesatarisht mbi 18 mij\u00eb persona n\u00eb vit. https:\/\/www.monitor.al\/shqiperia-drejt-shuarjes-shtesa-natyrore-e-popullsise-ne-2018-n-me-e-uleta-qe-kur-ka-nisur-regjistrimi-ne-1923\/<\/p>\n Popullsia n\u00ebn 1 milion banor\u00eb<\/strong><\/p>\n Sipas projeksioneve t\u00eb Departamentit t\u00eb Popullsis\u00eb n\u00eb Organizat\u00ebn e Kombeve t\u00eb Bashkuara, Varianti pesimist parashikon q\u00eb vitin n\u00eb 2100, popullsia e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb do t\u00eb jet\u00eb vet\u00ebm 860 mij\u00eb banor\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrsa skenari normal parashikon q\u00eb Shqip\u00ebria t\u00eb popullohet me vet\u00ebm 1 milion\u00eb e 600 mij\u00eb banor\u00eb. Skenari optimist q\u00eb parashikon emigracion zero dhe ecuri normale t\u00eb normave t\u00eb fertilitetit parashikon q\u00eb popullsia e vendit deri n\u00eb vitin 2100 t\u00eb jet\u00eb 2 milion\u00eb e 800 mij\u00eb banor\u00eb, nga rreth 2,9 milion\u00eb q\u00eb num\u00ebrohen af\u00ebrsisht aktualisht. https:\/\/www.monitor.al\/parashikimi-frikshem-okb-popullsia-shqiptare-rrezikon-te-katandiset-860-mije-banore-deri-ne-vitin-2100\/<\/p>\n Emigracioni n\u00eb vite<\/strong><\/p>\n Vendi e p\u00ebrjetoi traum\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb fenomenit t\u00eb emigracionit n\u00eb vitin 1992 kur emigracioni neto sh\u00ebnoi -443 mij\u00eb persona, sipas Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore. Banka parashikon q\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb sistematike emigracioni neto -40 mij\u00eb persona n\u00eb pes\u00ebvje\u00e7ar\u00ebt deri n\u00eb 2022, 2027, 2032, 2042 dhe 2047. Sipas nj\u00eb analize t\u00eb m\u00ebparshme t\u00eb BB-s\u00eb, Shqip\u00ebria ka sh\u00ebnuar nivelin m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb emigracionit neto nd\u00ebr t\u00eb gjitha vendet e rajonit krahasuar me numrin e popullsis\u00eb.<\/p>\n Emigracioni neto gjat\u00eb periudh\u00ebs 2011-2015 ishte \u2013 91,750 persona (diferenca nd\u00ebrmjet ikjeve dhe ardhjeve). Pas Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb Serbia ka sh\u00ebnuar nj\u00eb emigracion neto ne rreth 100 mij\u00eb persona n\u00eb pes\u00eb vitet e fundit, por popullsia e saj \u00ebsht\u00eb gati tre her\u00eb m\u00eb e madhe se Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb.<\/p>\n Pas nj\u00eb stabilizimi n\u00eb mesin e viteve 2000 emigracioni ka nisur t\u00eb theksohet pas kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb viteve 2008. Me k\u00ebto ritme rajoni i Ballkanit sidomos Shqip\u00ebria \u00ebsht\u00eb duke humbur avantazhin konkurrues, kapitalin njer\u00ebzor dhe krahun e lir\u00eb t\u00eb pun\u00ebs q\u00eb z\u00eb mbi 80 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb eksporteve n\u00eb vend. S\u00eb paku deri m\u00eb vitin 2050 shqiptar\u00ebt q\u00eb do t\u00eb emigrojn\u00eb do t\u00eb jen\u00eb n\u00eb nivele shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb larta se ato q\u00eb do t\u00eb zgjedhin t\u00eb rikthehen p\u00ebr t\u00eb jetuar n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri. Nj\u00eb parashikim i fundit i Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore, tregon se p\u00ebr periudh\u00ebn 2017- 2022 emigracioni neto (diferenca nd\u00ebrmjet t\u00eb ikurve dhe atyre q\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":96447,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241,231,235],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-96446","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-aktualitet","8":"category-lajme","9":"category-vendi"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96446","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96446"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96446\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96447"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96446"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96446"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96446"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nNgjarja shokuese u p\u00ebrs\u00ebrit me ritme t\u00eb forta n\u00eb periudh\u00ebn 1992- 1997, dukeku emigracioni neto sh\u00ebnoi -179 mij\u00eb persona, ku kulmi ishte n\u00eb periudh\u00ebn e piramidave. M\u00eb pas, deri n\u00eb vitin 2002 ik\u00ebn edhe 93 mij\u00eb persona.<\/p>\n
\nShqip\u00ebria radhitet n\u00eb vendet me potenciale t\u00eb larta t\u00eb emigrimit. Parashikimet e Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore p\u00ebr tre dekadat n\u00eb vijim u b\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb projeksionet e reja t\u00eb saj t\u00eb publikuara s\u00eb fundi mbi ecurin\u00eb e popullsis\u00eb globale.<\/p>\n
\nShqip\u00ebria u rendit n\u00eb mesin e vendeve me potencial t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb riskut social, e ndikuar nga niveli i lart\u00eb i emigracionit, q\u00eb e kombinuar me nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb fiskale e b\u00ebn vendin jo shum\u00eb t\u00eb lakmuesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb biznes.\/Monitor<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"