Organizata e Kombeve t\u00eb Bashkuara (OKB), n\u00eb projeksionet e saj p\u00ebr popullsin\u00eb shqiptare ka rishikuar n\u00eb ulje me 30-40% pritshm\u00ebrit\u00eb se sa persona do t\u00eb mbeten n\u00eb nj\u00eb vend deri n\u00eb vitin 2100. Zhvler\u00ebsimi i ndjesh\u00ebm ka ardhur brenda nj\u00eb viti (2019 kundrejt 2018) dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb nxitur si nga r\u00ebnia e norm\u00ebs s\u00eb lindshm\u00ebrive, ashtu dhe nga trendi i lart\u00eb i emigracionit.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb parashikimet e publikuara n\u00eb vitin 2018, sipas variantit t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb parashikimit (me norm\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb fertiliteti), popullsia e vendit n\u00eb vitin 2100 pritej t\u00eb mbetej n\u00eb rreth 2.8 milion\u00eb persona, n\u00eb nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb leht\u00eb nga niveli aktual prej 2.87 milion\u00eb banor\u00ebsh. Por, vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb vit m\u00eb pas, n\u00eb 2019-n, pritshm\u00ebria \u00ebsht\u00eb ulur ndjesh\u00ebm edhe p\u00ebr variantin optimist.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha rastet, edhe n\u00eb variantin optimist, \u2013 pra n\u00ebse merret nj\u00eb nivel zero emigracioni dhe ecuri normale e normave t\u00eb fertilitetit-, n\u00eb vitin 2100, Shqip\u00ebria nuk pritet q\u00eb t\u00eb ket\u00eb me shum\u00eb se 1.9 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb, ose 31% m\u00eb pak se parashikimi i nj\u00eb viti m\u00eb par\u00eb.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb variantin e mes\u00ebm, Shqip\u00ebria nuk pritet t\u00eb ket\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 1 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb, nga 1.6 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb q\u00eb ishte parashikimi n\u00eb vitin 2018 p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb skenar, me nj\u00eb ulje prej rreth 34%.Rishikimi m\u00eb i lart\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb p\u00ebr skenarin e ul\u00ebt (norm\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb emigracionit dhe fertilitet t\u00eb ul\u00ebt), n\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb s\u00eb cilin, n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri n\u00eb vitin 2100, sipas pritshm\u00ebrive t\u00eb departamentit t\u00eb Divizionit t\u00eb Popullsis\u00eb t\u00eb OKB-s\u00eb, n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri nuk pritet q\u00eb t\u00eb mbeten m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 512 mij\u00eb banor\u00eb. M\u00eb par\u00eb, pritshm\u00ebria ishte p\u00ebr 860 mij\u00eb banor\u00eb, pra parashikimi \u00ebsht\u00eb ulur me 40%.<\/p>\n
Arsyet<\/strong><\/p>\n R\u00ebnia e lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb (fertiliteti-norma bruto e lindjeve) dhe rifillimi i ciklit t\u00eb emigracionit pritet q\u00eb t\u00eb tkurrin popullsin\u00eb n\u00eb dekadat n\u00eb vijim.<\/p>\n T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e fundit t\u00eb INSTAT treguan se grat\u00eb q\u00eb jetojn\u00eb n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri vit pas viti po heqin dor\u00eb nga m\u00ebm\u00ebsia, duke reduktuar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb drastike numrin e bebeve t\u00eb sjella n\u00eb jet\u00eb. N\u00eb vitin 2018 ky fenomen u theksua edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb kur numri mesatar i f\u00ebmij\u00ebve t\u00eb lindur nga nj\u00eb grua sh\u00ebnoi rekord historik. Indeksi i fertilitetit ishte vet\u00ebm 1.37 f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb grua nga 1.48 f\u00ebmij\u00eb m\u00eb 2017 dhe nga 1.73 f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr grua q\u00eb ishte ky indeks n\u00eb vitin 2014, sipas t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb INSTAT.<\/p>\n R\u00ebnia me shpejt\u00ebsi e numrit t\u00eb lindjeve e ka \u00e7uar Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb n\u00ebn norm\u00ebn e z\u00ebvend\u00ebsimit e cila p\u00ebrllogaritet 2.1 f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr grua. Gjithashtu Shqip\u00ebria e ka norm\u00ebn e lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb shum\u00eb posht\u00eb indeksit global t\u00eb fertilitetit i cili n\u00eb vitin 2017 ishte 2.4 f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr grua sipas t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore. Grat\u00eb shqiptare lindin gati 50 p\u00ebr qind m\u00eb pak f\u00ebmij\u00eb se mesatarja globale.<\/p>\n Nga janari 2014 deri n\u00eb janar t\u00eb 2018 popullsia e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb zvog\u00ebluar mesatarisht me 0,16 % n\u00eb vit. Si pasoj\u00eb e k\u00ebtyre zhvillimeve raportet e var\u00ebsis\u00eb jan\u00eb rritur p\u00ebr moshat e vjetra dhe jan\u00eb ulur p\u00ebr ato t\u00eb rejat. Raportet e var\u00ebsis\u00eb llogariten duke krahasuar numrin e personave (t\u00eb rinjt\u00eb 0-14 vje\u00e7 dhe\/ose t\u00eb moshuarit 65+ vje\u00e7) me popullsin\u00eb n\u00eb mosh\u00eb pune.<\/p>\n Nd\u00ebrsa nga viti 2015, Shqip\u00ebria po p\u00ebrjeton nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb re t\u00eb fenomenit t\u00eb emigracionit. Vet\u00ebm aplikimet p\u00ebr azil, n\u00eb pes\u00eb vitet e fundit kan\u00eb arritur n\u00eb rreth 200 mij\u00eb, sipas t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave zyrtare nga Eurostat, nd\u00ebrsa ka dhe shum\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb q\u00eb ikin me kontrata pune, ose q\u00eb thjesht largohen e nuk kthehen m\u00eb.<\/p>\n Largimi i popullsis\u00eb po b\u00ebhet problem p\u00ebr sip\u00ebrmarrjet, t\u00eb cilat ankohen se nuk po gjejn\u00eb fuqi pun\u00ebtore t\u00eb specializuar. N\u00eb nj\u00eb sondazh t\u00eb fundit, Instituti Shqiptar i SME-ve \u2018SME Albania\u2019 gjeti se rreth 61% e nd\u00ebrmarrjeve kan\u00eb pasur punonj\u00ebs t\u00eb larguar p\u00ebr arsye emigracioni gjat\u00eb vitit 2019.<\/p>\n R\u00ebnia e popullsis\u00eb, sidomos largimi i popullsis\u00eb n\u00eb mosh\u00eb pune pritet t\u00eb jap\u00eb efekte t\u00eb r\u00ebnda n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen, si n\u00eb skem\u00ebn e pensioneve, me krijimin e nj\u00eb shtrese t\u00eb brisht\u00eb pa kujdesin e duhur, ashtu dhe n\u00eb r\u00ebnien e produktivitetit t\u00eb sip\u00ebrmarrjeve, me efekt n\u00eb tendenc\u00ebn e pagave, investimeve t\u00eb tyre e taksave q\u00eb paguajn\u00eb, me pasoja afatgjata n\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsimin e ekonomis\u00eb s\u00eb vendit. \/Monitor.al<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Organizata e Kombeve t\u00eb Bashkuara (OKB), n\u00eb projeksionet e saj p\u00ebr popullsin\u00eb shqiptare ka rishikuar n\u00eb ulje me 30-40% pritshm\u00ebrit\u00eb se sa persona do t\u00eb mbeten n\u00eb nj\u00eb vend deri n\u00eb vitin 2100. Zhvler\u00ebsimi i ndjesh\u00ebm ka ardhur brenda nj\u00eb viti (2019 kundrejt 2018) dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb nxitur si nga r\u00ebnia e norm\u00ebs s\u00eb lindshm\u00ebrive, ashtu […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2013,"featured_media":70126,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241,235],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-120380","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-aktualitet","8":"category-vendi"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120380","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2013"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=120380"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120380\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/70126"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=120380"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=120380"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=120380"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}