Ne jetojm\u00eb n\u00eb koh\u00ebra interesante. Strategjit\u00eb e investimeve q\u00eb kan\u00eb funksionuar gjat\u00eb nj\u00eb inflacioni t\u00eb ul\u00ebt, me normat e interesit n\u00eb r\u00ebnie, nuk ka gjasa t\u00eb funksionojn\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb mjedis inflacionist, me norma interesi negative. Me trendin afatgjat\u00eb t\u00eb uljes s\u00eb normave t\u00eb interesit dhe rritjes s\u00eb inflacionit (me shenja q\u00eb tregojn\u00eb se nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb di\u00e7ka kalimtare), gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb instrumente borxhi kan\u00eb norma interesi gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb negative.<\/p>\n
\u201cInvestitor\u00ebt me t\u00eb ardhura fikse n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn \u2013 qofshin fondet e pensioneve, kompanit\u00eb e sigurimeve apo pensionist\u00ebt \u2013 po p\u00ebrballen me nj\u00eb t\u00eb ardhme t\u00eb zymt\u00eb\u201d, sipas Warren Buffet. Edhe Yield-et nominale jan\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb negative, si\u00e7 tregon grafiku i m\u00ebposht\u00ebm: Stoku global i borxhit me yield-e negativePjesa e par\u00eb e k\u00ebtij artikulli trajton faktin pse kjo prirje ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb apo edhe t\u00eb theksohet. Pjesa e dyt\u00eb merret me m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn se si mund t\u00eb mbroheni n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb lloj mjedisi.<\/p>\n
(a) Pse normat reale t\u00eb interesit do t\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb<\/p>\n
Me pak fjal\u00eb, spiralja e borxhit dhe shtypja e parave tashm\u00eb kan\u00eb dal\u00eb jasht\u00eb kontrollit. Me borxhin e p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm global n\u00eb nivelin mbi 350% t\u00eb Prodhimit t\u00eb Brendsh\u00ebm Bruto ( PBB) globale, borxhin e qeveris\u00eb amerikane mbi 160% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb amerikane dhe borxhin e qeveris\u00eb japoneze mbi 230% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb, qeverit\u00eb e kan\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u2019i shp\u00ebtojn\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb shpenzimeve p\u00ebr mbulimin e deficitit. Japonia, pavar\u00ebsisht nga normat rekord t\u00eb ul\u00ebta t\u00eb interesit, shpenzon mbi 20% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb s\u00eb saj n\u00eb sh\u00ebrbimin e kostove t\u00eb interesit.<\/p>\n
Grafiku i m\u00ebposht\u00ebm tregon nj\u00eb model t\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb aseteve n\u00eb bilancin e Rezerv\u00ebs Federale amerikane, q\u00eb ka bler\u00eb bono dhe asete t\u00eb tjera, si nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb ulur yield-et. N\u00eb dekad\u00ebn e fundit, tashm\u00eb jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb kat\u00ebr p\u00ebrpjekje p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbysur k\u00ebt\u00eb prirje, dhe secila ka rezultuar n\u00eb nj\u00eb \u201cp\u00ebr\u00e7arje\u201d (p.sh. kur tregjet e aksioneve bien, duke k\u00ebrkuar rritjen e madhe t\u00eb stimulit p\u00ebr t\u00eb nxitur ekonomin\u00eb):<\/p>\n
Ngadal\u00ebsimi i ritmit nga Rezerva Federale<\/p>\n
(Bilanci i Rezerv\u00ebs Federale si p\u00ebrqindje e PBB-s\u00eb nominale)<\/p>\n
Duke qen\u00eb se qeverit\u00eb, korporatat dhe individ\u00ebt jan\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb pas borxheve, e vetmja mund\u00ebsi reale p\u00ebr Bankat Qendrore, \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb lejojn\u00eb q\u00eb inflacioni t\u00eb rritet t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 3-4% m\u00eb tep\u00ebr se normat e interesit, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb gjejn\u00eb rrug\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb dal\u00eb nga borxhi masiv. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb ka shembuj t\u00eb m\u00ebparsh\u00ebm: SHBA-ja ndoqi pik\u00ebrisht k\u00ebt\u00eb strategji p\u00ebr t\u00eb trajtuar borxhin e grumbulluar gjat\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore.<\/p>\n
Duke pasur parasysh se politika monetare (normat e ul\u00ebta t\u00eb interesit dhe blerja e bonove t\u00eb kontrolluara nga Bankat Qendrore) po arrin kufijt\u00eb e saj, qeverit\u00eb kan\u00eb filluar stimulimet p\u00ebrmes \u201cparave me helikopter\u201d (helicopter money) dhe shpenzimeve t\u00eb deficitit. Ato gjithashtu po garantojn\u00eb huat\u00eb e dh\u00ebna nga bankat, q\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb rritje dramatike t\u00eb huadh\u00ebnies bankare, p\u00ebrmes s\u00eb cil\u00ebs do t\u00eb krijohen para t\u00eb reja.<\/p>\n
Prodhuesit kan\u00eb filluar t\u00eb ndiejn\u00eb mungesa akute t\u00eb l\u00ebnd\u00ebve t\u00eb para, duke filluar nga \u00e7eliku tek mikro\u00e7ipet. Kostot e transportit t\u00eb kontejner\u00ebve po rriten. Mungesat e fuqis\u00eb pun\u00ebtore po vihen re kudo. Shpejt\u00ebsia e qarkullimit t\u00eb parave kishte r\u00ebn\u00eb aq shum\u00eb gjat\u00eb dekad\u00ebs s\u00eb fundit, saq\u00eb nuk kishte rrug\u00eb tjet\u00ebr ve\u00e7 rritjes, duke nxitur edhe nj\u00eb her\u00eb inflacionin.<\/p>\n
(b) Si t\u00eb mbroheni n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb mjedis?<\/p>\n
Mjedisi aktual i investimeve \u00ebsht\u00eb quajtur me shum\u00eb terma \u2013 nga \u201cgjith\u00e7ka n\u00eb fllusk\u00eb\u201d n\u00eb \u201cPowell Put[1]\u201c. Inflacioni i kthen parat\u00eb n\u00eb di\u00e7ka pa vler\u00eb. Pensionet ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrrohen nga inflacioni. N\u00eb k\u00ebto rrethana, si mund ta ruajm\u00eb pasurin\u00eb ton\u00eb? Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb ndoshta \u00e7\u00ebshtja m\u00eb urgjente me t\u00eb cil\u00ebn po p\u00ebrballen investitor\u00ebt n\u00eb nj\u00eb mjedis inflacionist. Ekziston nj\u00eb etje p\u00ebr yield, \u00e7ka rrit tej mase shumic\u00ebn e vler\u00ebsimeve.<\/p>\n
Ne shohim tre linja p\u00ebr para cash n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb mjedis:<\/p>\n
Asetet fizike. K\u00ebtu p\u00ebrfshihen pasurit\u00eb e paluajtshme, tokat bujq\u00ebsore, etj.
\nAksionet e kompanive.
\nMallrat, dhe brenda k\u00ebsaj kategorie, shufrat e arit. Vini re se bonot nuk jan\u00eb n\u00eb list\u00eb. Dikush q\u00eb blen bono me yield-e shum\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta, grumbullon interesa t\u00eb dob\u00ebta duke rrezikuar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb konsiderueshme q\u00eb inflacioni m\u00eb i lart\u00eb apo rritja e normave t\u00eb fshij\u00eb fitimet.<\/p>\n
Por \u00ebsht\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme t\u00eb theksohet se brenda secil\u00ebs prej tre klasave t\u00eb m\u00ebsip\u00ebrme t\u00eb aseteve, ekziston nj\u00eb k\u00ebrkim p\u00ebr cil\u00ebsi. Njohuria p\u00ebr \u00e7do treg b\u00ebhet ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme. Sigurisht q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb e leht\u00eb t\u00eb gjesh pasuri t\u00eb paluajtshme, aksione t\u00eb listuara publikisht, ose mallra q\u00eb do t\u00eb performojn\u00eb dob\u00ebt n\u00eb vitet e ardhshme.<\/p>\n
Por n\u00ebse keni koh\u00eb dhe njohuri p\u00ebr t\u00eb k\u00ebrkuar aksione cil\u00ebsore ose pasuri t\u00eb paluajtshme q\u00eb nxisin rrjedh\u00ebn e paras\u00eb, jan\u00eb t\u00eb menaxhuar mir\u00eb dhe ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb prodhojn\u00eb flukse monetare gjithnj\u00eb n\u00eb rritje, ka nj\u00eb shans t\u00eb mir\u00eb q\u00eb vlera e k\u00ebtyre aseteve t\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsohet t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn n\u00eb p\u00ebrputhje me vler\u00ebn e inflacionit \u2013 ose q\u00eb t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn ato t\u00eb japin rezultate m\u00eb t\u00eb mira se mbajtja e parave n\u00eb cash. Sigurisht, n\u00ebse besoni se tregjet e aksioneve mund t\u00eb bien n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen e af\u00ebrt, mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb e logjikshme q\u00eb t\u00eb mbani para n\u00eb dor\u00eb, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb keni likuiditet p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrfituar nga pazaret.<\/p>\n
Shufrat e arit jan\u00eb pak m\u00eb ndryshe. Ato jan\u00eb ndoshta e vetmja klas\u00eb e aseteve kryesore q\u00eb, sipas mendimit ton\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebnvler\u00ebsuar n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb mjedis. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb dukuri mjaft interesante, duke pasur parasysh se shufrat e arit zakonisht performojn\u00eb shum\u00eb mir\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb mjedis inflacionist, me norm\u00eb reale negative t\u00eb interesit. Ka shum\u00eb logjik\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn nj\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje t\u00eb vog\u00ebl t\u00eb portofolit tuaj, ta keni n\u00eb shufra ari:<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr Bankat Qendrore, \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb rritet sasia e arit n\u00eb rezerva. N\u00eb vitin 1980, bankat mbanin mbi 70% t\u00eb rezervave t\u00eb tyre n\u00eb ar; deri n\u00eb vitin 2005, kjo ra n\u00ebn 5%, dhe tani \u00ebsht\u00eb s\u00ebrish n\u00eb rritje.
\nP\u00ebr individ\u00ebt dhe korporatat, n\u00eb vend q\u00eb t\u00eb ken\u00eb instrumente negative t\u00eb norm\u00ebs s\u00eb interesit, shufrat e arit b\u00ebhen nj\u00eb alternativ\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00ebrheq\u00ebse;<\/p>\n
Ne jetojm\u00eb n\u00eb koh\u00ebra interesante. Strategjit\u00eb e investimeve q\u00eb kan\u00eb funksionuar gjat\u00eb nj\u00eb inflacioni t\u00eb ul\u00ebt, me normat e interesit n\u00eb r\u00ebnie, nuk ka gjasa t\u00eb funksionojn\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb mjedis inflacionist, me norma interesi negative.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ne jetojm\u00eb n\u00eb koh\u00ebra interesante. Strategjit\u00eb e investimeve q\u00eb kan\u00eb funksionuar gjat\u00eb nj\u00eb inflacioni t\u00eb ul\u00ebt, me normat e interesit n\u00eb r\u00ebnie, nuk ka gjasa t\u00eb funksionojn\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb mjedis inflacionist, me norma interesi negative. Me trendin afatgjat\u00eb t\u00eb uljes s\u00eb normave t\u00eb interesit dhe rritjes s\u00eb inflacionit (me shenja q\u00eb tregojn\u00eb se nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2020,"featured_media":220539,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241,5380,231],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-220538","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-aktualitet","8":"category-kryesore","9":"category-lajme"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/220538","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2020"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=220538"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/220538\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/220539"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=220538"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=220538"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=220538"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}