Shtetet e Bashkuara hyn\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00eb me Iranin p\u00ebr arsye q\u00eb mbeten ende t\u00eb paqarta. N\u00eb momente t\u00eb ndryshme, presidenti dhe njer\u00ebzit e tij kan\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb shpjegime t\u00eb ndryshme: her\u00eb si nj\u00eb luft\u00eb parandalimi p\u00ebr vet\u00ebmbrojtje, her\u00eb si p\u00ebrpjekje p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndalur rind\u00ebrtimin e programit b\u00ebrthamor iranian, e madje edhe si nj\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje p\u00ebr ndryshim regjimi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Justifikimi duket se ndryshon n\u00eb var\u00ebsi t\u00eb kujt i drejtohet mesazhi, duke e b\u00ebr\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb kuptohet se cili \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00ebllimi p\u00ebrfundimtar i k\u00ebsaj lufte, apo n\u00ebse ekziston v\u00ebrtet nj\u00eb strategji e qart\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb situat\u00eb t\u00eb paqart\u00eb lind pyetja kryesore: si mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb kjo luft\u00eb? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Media amerikane Vox p\u00ebrpiqet ti jap\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje k\u00ebsaj pyetje duke folur me ekspert\u00ebt e Iranit, Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme dhe politik\u00ebs ushtarake amerikane, p\u00ebr t\u00eb cil\u00ebt shkruan se jan\u00eb kryesisht dakord p\u00ebr nj\u00eb gj\u00eb: skenari m\u00eb optimist i administrat\u00ebs Trump, q\u00eb bombardimet amerikane t\u00eb nxisin popullin iranian t\u00eb ngrihet dhe t\u00eb rr\u00ebzoj\u00eb regjimin, \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb pak i besuesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cNuk ka asnj\u00eb precedent historik q\u00eb bombardimet ajrore t\u00eb \u00e7ojn\u00eb n\u00eb rr\u00ebzimin e nj\u00eb regjimi nga nj\u00eb kryengritje popullore,\u201d<\/em> thot\u00eb Hussein Banai, profesor i politik\u00ebs iraniane n\u00eb Universitetin Indiana-Bloomington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n N\u00ebse kjo analiz\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e sakt\u00eb, at\u00ebher\u00eb ekzistojn\u00eb dy drejtime t\u00eb mundshme p\u00ebr zhvillimin e luft\u00ebs: nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje politike ose nj\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzim i m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm i konfliktit.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Administrata Trump e nisi k\u00ebt\u00eb luft\u00eb pjes\u00ebrisht sepse p\u00ebrplasjet e m\u00ebparshme me Iranin kishin rezultuar m\u00eb pak t\u00eb rrezikshme nga sa pritej. Vrasja e gjeneralit iranian Qassem Soleimani n\u00eb vitin 2020 dhe sulmet ndaj objekteve b\u00ebrthamore nuk prodhuan p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimin e madh q\u00eb shum\u00eb analist\u00eb kishin parashikuar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Por situata aktuale \u00ebsht\u00eb ndryshe. Irani tashm\u00eb ka reaguar duke goditur disa vende t\u00eb Gjirit dhe duke paralajm\u00ebruar nj\u00eb bllokad\u00eb t\u00eb mundshme t\u00eb Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit, nj\u00eb nga rrug\u00ebt m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme t\u00eb tregtis\u00eb globale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, Teherani prej koh\u00ebsh \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitur p\u00ebr nj\u00eb skenar t\u00eb ndryshimit t\u00eb regjimit. Institucionet shtet\u00ebrore jan\u00eb strukturuar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb funksionimin edhe n\u00eb rast se figura t\u00eb larta politike eliminohen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb nga arsyet pse vrasja e liderit suprem Ali Khamenei nuk ka sjell\u00eb destabilizim t\u00eb menj\u00ebhersh\u00ebm. Ndryshe nga lider\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb autoritar\u00eb, sistemi politik iranian nuk varet nga nj\u00eb figur\u00eb e vetme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cGjith\u00e7ka q\u00eb po shohim tregon se udh\u00ebheqja \u00ebsht\u00eb ende n\u00eb kontroll dhe nuk ka shenja q\u00eb nj\u00eb protest\u00eb popullore mund ta rr\u00ebzoj\u00eb regjimin,\u201d<\/em> thot\u00eb Ken Pollack nga instituti Middle East Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ekspert\u00ebt theksojn\u00eb se edhe ushtria iraniane \u00ebsht\u00eb pjes\u00eb integrale e sistemit politik. Nj\u00eb grusht shteti ushtarak do t\u00eb n\u00ebnkuptonte n\u00eb thelb rr\u00ebzimin e vetvetes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Po ashtu, nj\u00eb kryengritje popullore duket shum\u00eb e pamundur. Kur iranian\u00ebt protestuan masivisht vet\u00ebm pak muaj m\u00eb par\u00eb, regjimi reagoi me dhun\u00eb ekstreme, duke vrar\u00eb dhjet\u00ebra mij\u00ebra njer\u00ebz n\u00eb nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb shkurt\u00ebr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n N\u00eb munges\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb ndryshimi regjimi, shumica e ekspert\u00ebve besojn\u00eb se lufta mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb me nj\u00eb kompromis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201c\u00cbsht\u00eb pothuajse e pashmangshme q\u00eb Trump n\u00eb nj\u00eb moment t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqet nga objektivat maksimaliste dhe t\u00eb k\u00ebnaqet me di\u00e7ka m\u00eb t\u00eb vog\u00ebl,\u201d<\/em> thot\u00eb Michael Koplow nga Israel Policy Forum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje e tipit \u201cmodeli Venezuel\u00eb\u201d<\/strong>, ku SHBA shpall nj\u00eb fitore politike pas disa koncesioneve nga Teherani.<\/p>\n\n\n\n K\u00ebto koncesione mund t\u00eb lidhen me programin b\u00ebrthamor iranian, prodhimin e raketave balistike dhe mb\u00ebshtetjen p\u00ebr milicit\u00eb n\u00eb rajon si Hezbollah n\u00eb Liban, apo Houthit e Jemenit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n N\u00ebse Irani b\u00ebn disa l\u00ebshime n\u00eb k\u00ebto fusha, administrata amerikane mund ta paraqes\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb si sukses dhe ta mbyll\u00eb luft\u00ebn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr mund\u00ebsi \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb SHBA t\u00eb shpall\u00eb thjesht fitore simbolike, <\/strong>duke theksuar eliminimin e Khameneit dhe d\u00ebmtimin e objekteve b\u00ebrthamore, dhe t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqet pa nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje t\u00eb plot\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nj\u00eb skenar i till\u00eb do t\u00eb ndryshonte pak situat\u00ebn reale n\u00eb terren, por do t\u00eb ishte n\u00eb p\u00ebrputhje me m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn si Trump shpesh menaxhon krizat nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, sidomos n\u00ebse ekonomia globale fillon t\u00eb ndjej\u00eb presion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ekziston edhe nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi tjet\u00ebr, shum\u00eb m\u00eb e rrezikshme, q\u00eb konflikti t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzohet n\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb, t\u00eb ngjashme me pushtimin e Irakut n\u00eb vitin 2003.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Shumica e analist\u00ebve e konsiderojn\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb skenar t\u00eb pamundur, pasi SHBA nuk duket e gatshme p\u00ebr nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr luft\u00eb t\u00eb madhe tok\u00ebsore n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Megjithat\u00eb, disa ngjarje mund ta ndryshojn\u00eb situat\u00ebn. P\u00ebr shembull, n\u00ebse Irani arrin t\u00eb kryej\u00eb nj\u00eb sulm t\u00eb madh ndaj forcave amerikane, duke vrar\u00eb dhjet\u00ebra ushtar\u00eb ose duke fundosur nj\u00eb anije ushtarake, presioni p\u00ebr nj\u00eb reagim shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb do t\u00eb rritej ndjesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n N\u00eb nj\u00eb situat\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb, p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimi mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet i pakontrolluesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cAskush nuk e nis nj\u00eb luft\u00eb duke menduar se do t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb batak,\u201d<\/em> thot\u00eb politologia Caitlin Talmadge nga MIT. \u201cPor historia e luft\u00ebrave na tregon se askush nuk e kontrollon plot\u00ebsisht m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn se si ato zhvillohen.\u201d <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb moment, skenar\u00ebt m\u00eb t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm mbeten dy, nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje e kufizuar ose nj\u00eb t\u00ebrheqje e nj\u00ebanshme amerikane. Por rreziku i p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimit nuk mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrjashtohet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Luft\u00ebrat jan\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonisht t\u00eb paparashikueshme \u00a0dhe konflikti aktual tashm\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrhapur n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb rajonin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ajo q\u00eb Trump ka nisur mund t\u00eb mos jet\u00eb m\u00eb plot\u00ebsisht n\u00ebn kontrollin e tij. Dhe historia ka treguar se edhe lider\u00ebt q\u00eb hyjn\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00eb duke premtuar nd\u00ebrhyrje t\u00eb kufizuara, mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundojn\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb konflikte shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha nga sa kishin imagjinuar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n P\u00ebrgatiti \u00a9LAPSI.AL <\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Shtetet e Bashkuara hyn\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00eb me Iranin p\u00ebr arsye q\u00eb mbeten ende t\u00eb paqarta. N\u00eb momente t\u00eb ndryshme, presidenti dhe njer\u00ebzit e tij kan\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb shpjegime t\u00eb ndryshme: her\u00eb si nj\u00eb luft\u00eb parandalimi p\u00ebr vet\u00ebmbrojtje, her\u00eb si p\u00ebrpjekje p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndalur rind\u00ebrtimin e programit b\u00ebrthamor iranian, e madje edhe si nj\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje p\u00ebr ndryshim […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2013,"featured_media":427530,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241,191,5380,231],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-427529","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-aktualitet","8":"category-bota","9":"category-kryesore","10":"category-lajme"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/427529","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2013"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=427529"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/427529\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":427531,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/427529\/revisions\/427531"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/427530"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=427529"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=427529"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zjarr.tv\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=427529"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Pse bombardimet nuk pritet t\u00eb rr\u00ebzojn\u00eb regjimin <\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Skenari m\u00eb i mundsh\u00ebm: nj\u00eb p\u00ebrfundim i kufizuar i luft\u00ebs <\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Skenari m\u00eb i rreziksh\u00ebm: p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzim i madh <\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Shum\u00eb t\u00eb panjohura\u2026 <\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n