By Eduard Zaloshnja
The lack of optimism among Democratic voters for their former presidential candidate, Joe Biden, risked him evaporating much of the 81.3 million votes that were registered for him in the presidential election four years ago. On the other hand, loyalty to Trump among Republican voters could make him receive more than the 74.2 million votes that were registered for him in the last presidential election. (It should be noted that unlike four years ago, Trump has called on his supporters to send their votes by mail, and not just physically go to the polling stations. And this time he will also have the support of Robert F. .Kennedy Jr.)
A significant decline in the participation of former voters of President Biden in the November elections jeopardized not only his presidential seat, but also that of the Democratic congressmen and senators. Since the elections are to be held on the same day as the presidential ones, the non-participation of Democratic voters in the elections would automatically reduce the votes for Democratic congressmen and senators…
CNN’s Jake Tapper reported a month ago that he had seen polls from private firm BlueLabs — funded by some Democratic donors — showing President Biden losing ground in 14 key states, including 5 where he narrowly won against Trump in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He was also losing ground in Colorado, Minnesota, Maine, New Mexico, Virginia and New Hampshire, where he won by significant margins four years ago.
The decline in Democratic voter turnout in these states could not only seal a deep defeat for President Biden, but also the loss of the Democratic majority in the Senate and the deepening of the Republican lead in the House of Representatives.
Precisely the fear of a total dominance of the Republicans in all three powers; executive, legislative and judicial (in the Supreme Court the ratio is already 6-3 in favor of judges appointed by Republican presidents), led the main figures of the Democrats (Obama, Clinton, Pelosi, etc.) to exert pressure for Biden to pass the baton to Kamala Harris.
And since her entry into the race, polls show a return to the statistical balance of the period before the 2020 election, with only six states remaining statistically close: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
The statistical question now remains, will Kamala be able to register more than the 81.3 million votes that Biden achieved four years ago nationally?
While the most important electoral question remains whether she will be able to win the races in the states where she is statistically head-to-head with Donald. Because precisely those races will determine who will go to the White House…
NOTE: About 80 million voting-age Americans did not participate in past presidential elections.
